Trump's Iran war, high gas prices and affordability issues are impacting midterm voters

During the U.S. midterm elections on November 3rd, former ambassador Ted Osius speculated that a Democratic Congress could regulate President Donald Trump's military actions in the Middle East but would likely find it difficult to reverse his trade policies. Osius, who previously served as ambassador to Vietnam from 2014 to 2017, believes the unpopular war in Iran is a key factor in the election outcome.

According to a Pew Research Center survey, 65% of Americans disapprove of Trump's management of the conflict in Iran, a sentiment that has remained consistent since the war began. The Democratic Party appears to have an edge over the GOP in the generic ballot, though control of the Senate remains uncertain. While a Democratic-led Congress might push for more stable trade policy from the Trump administration, Osius acknowledges that controlling tariffs is primarily the executive branch's responsibility.

The initial tariffs imposed by Trump in April 2025 disproportionately affected Southeast Asia, with Vietnam facing a 46% tariff rate, which was later reduced to 20% through a deal. Following a Supreme Court ruling in February 2025, the administration has employed alternative justifications for tariffs, such as claims of forced labor and excess capacity.

Despite these measures, Osius anticipates a Democratic victory will demonstrate that Trump's aggressive foreign policy is not sustainable in the long run. Instead, he argues, a more reliable approach to trade and rule of law is more effective, particularly in Southeast Asia. Vietnamese exports have continued to grow, with the Asian Development Bank projecting the region to expand by 4.7% in 2026 and 4.9% in 2027.

Despite the 12.5% tariff on Vietnamese exports to the U.S., exports have risen by 30% year-on-year. Trade patterns remain dynamic, with global trade shifting to Southeast Asia, according to Amol Gupte, Asia South head at Citi. Still, regional tensions persist, including disputes over the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca.

ASEAN nations are advocating for international law to address their interests without aligning with either the U.S. or China.