Trump claims he will end military aid to Israel, but figures tell a different story

President Donald Trump announced that the US would cease providing military aid to Israel by the end of 2023, a claim that appears more nuanced upon closer examination. This decision follows Washington's approval of billions of dollars in additional military assistance for Israel, surpassing the funds allocated for the final two years of their existing military aid agreement.

Here are the key points of this arrangement: The Third MoU was established in 2016 by US President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, covering fiscal years 2019 to 2028. Under this agreement, the US committed to providing Israel with $38 billion in military aid over a decade, averaging $3.8 billion annually.

The United States has already approved over $8.8 billion in extra military assistance and joint defense funding for Israel since the October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas. This additional funding already exceeds the $7.6 billion slated for Israel in 2027 and 2028 under the current MoU, by more than $1.2 billion. Consequently, canceling the remaining assistance would not save the US any money.

Trump's announcement may also serve to appeal to voters during the US midterm elections, as Democrats highlight ongoing military aid for Israel amidst rising living costs. Support for Israel has waned in the US, with growing criticism from some members of Trump's Republican base and poll data suggesting a shift in public opinion.

In recent years, certain lawmakers have expressed concerns over Palestinian human rights and have become more vocal in opposing military aid. Trump stated that his decision stemmed from an agreement with Netanyahu. Prior to Israel's recent elections, Netanyahu cautioned that the country should prepare for the potential end of longstanding US military aid agreements, instructing officials to plan for the economic and financial ramifications.

Netanyahu's coalition faces challenges in forming a stable government, and Trump's announcement could provide Netanyahu with a new reason to remain in power: Israel's limited time to conclude its military campaign against Iran before US assistance concludes. Trump reassured that he would re-establish assistance if Israel required it.

For now, he claimed that Israel was "thriving" and no longer needed American aid. Israel is the largest cumulative recipient of US foreign aid since World War II, having received more than $190 billion in bilateral assistance and missile defense funding, according to Congressional figures.