The US-China thaw may not outlive the Trump era
Debates over US policy on China are set to heat up after the midterm elections.
As the US midterm elections loom, the future of the burgeoning US-China relationship hangs in the balance. With a potentially humiliating defeat for Republicans on the horizon, President Donald Trump's appetite for diplomatic engagement with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, could intensify. This is partly due to Trump's unabashed admiration for Xi, evidenced by their two summits and aspirations for a G2 to manage global affairs, as well as his dismissive attitude towards strategic concerns that might strain their relationship.
However, the prospect of a post-Trump presidency introduces uncertainty. Foreign policy elites and tech hawk groups criticize Trump's approach, accusing him of ceding the Western Pacific to China and allowing advanced chip exports to the country. If Trump's tenure ends amidst midterm losses, the new administration may have limited flexibility in handling China, as former diplomats argue that Trump has effectively become the de facto China desk officer.
Former US expert Ali Wyne warns that the next president, regardless of party affiliation, will inherit a weaker hand vis-à-vis China and be more permissive towards confrontational actions. This could lead to a more adversarial stance towards Beijing, potentially undoing the positive trajectory of the current relationship.
Written by urgent.news from Semafor's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
