South Africa and Rwanda count the costs of AGOA exclusion

The United States has removed South Africa and Rwanda from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a major free trade program with African nations. Starting January 1, 2027, these countries will lose tariff-free access to the U.S. market under AGOA, following a review by the US Trade Representative's office. President Trump cited concerns about governance issues, including trade barriers, rule of law, and human rights, in both countries.

In Rwanda, the US is particularly troubled by trade and investment restrictions, rule of law challenges, political pluralism, worker rights, human rights issues, and potential threats to U.S. security. South Africa faced scrutiny over barriers to U.S. trade and investment, corruption allegations, and concerns over threats to U.S. national security, particularly due to its legal backing of Israel's actions in Gaza.

Qualifying for AGOA involves meeting specific legal, economic, and political standards set by the U.S. The program has historically benefited South Africa most, with the country being the largest exporter to the U.S. under the agreement. In 2025, South Africa's AGOA exports were valued at nearly $1.5 billion, down from $4 billion in 2024. However, AGOA's benefits have been diminished by existing tariffs, particularly on vehicles and components, and certain metals.

Despite this setback, South Africa remains open to future trade cooperation with the U.S., though the extent of this relationship will depend on both parties' willingness to resolve their issues. Rwanda's exclusion follows U.S. sanctions on its Ministry of Defence for supporting the M23 rebel group in Congo, a move that highlights the U.S. commitment to holding Rwanda accountable for its actions in the region.