RBA interest rates: Bullock says ‘pain now’ will prevent worse later as Reserve Bank hikes rates for fifth time

The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised its official cash rate to 4.85%, marking the highest level since 2008. Governor Michele Bullock explained that "some pain now will prevent even worse pain down the track" after the increase, aimed at curbing persistent inflation. This is the fifth rate hike this year, intensifying the burden on mortgage holders.

While financial markets now consider the likelihood of another rate rise before Christmas at just 12%, they still view a potential sixth hike by May at roughly 30%. Bullock's decision split the monetary policy board, with six members supporting the hike and three advocating for maintaining the cash rate. The rate hikes will particularly strain over 3.3 million households with home loans, leading to a $107 increase in monthly payments on a $700,000 loan, with a cumulative rise of $532 over the past five hikes.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers attributed the recent inflation surge primarily to soaring fuel prices due to the Middle East conflict. Opposition leader Angus Taylor blamed the Albanese government's spending, stating voters "deserved to hear the truth" that Labor's spending spree is driving up inflation and interest rates. Economists from UBS interpreted RBA's removal of an explicit reference to potential future hikes as a "clearly dovish" signal.

EY's chief economist, Cherelle Murphy, suggested the RBA might take a "wait-and-see" approach during the summer, although she didn't rule out further rate hikes. The central bank's forecasts predict a year-long cost of living crisis, with inflation expected to peak at around 4.5% by year-end and only fall below the 3% target by the end of next year – nine months later than originally anticipated.