Midterms: US-Amerikaner entscheiden über Machtverhältnisse im Kongress

Millions of American citizens are voting today to determine the future composition of Congress in Washington. All 435 House seats and nearly one-third of the 100 Senate seats are up for election in the Midterms. As of now, the Republican party of former US President Donald Trump holds a narrow majority in both chambers of Congress.

According to opinion researchers and election analysts, there is a possibility that the Democrats could emerge stronger from the election due to the negative approval ratings of Trump. Early results are expected after midnight Wednesday in Central Europe. It is unclear who will hold the majority in the two chambers once the results are finalized - this could take several days in the case of a narrow outcome.

In a few states, it is possible that later recounts may occur. Unlike in Germany, there is no pre-determined date for the overall outcome. Based on calculations from major media outlets, seats are gradually being allocated to the respective parties. The majority system is key: the candidate who ends up with the most votes in each race is the winner.

Midterms serve as a mood test for Trump. Between presidential terms, these elections are often used to punish the incumbent party. If the Republicans were to lose the majority in one or both chambers, it would make it more difficult for Trump to push through legislation or establish a government budget. Trump could face more congressional hearings to exert pressure, as well as rejected personnel suggestions for top positions.

Even an impeachment process could be looming over Trump if the Democrats were to regain the House. Internationally, the election is also watched for possible impacts on Trump's foreign and economic policies. The question arises if the results could influence his strategy regarding the Ukraine war, trade disputes, and the Iran conflict.

Trump himself has declared the parliamentary elections as a referendum on his policies. Although he is not on the ballot, he has urged voters to act as if he were a candidate himself. Trump mixed up his selection of candidates, and losing them would also damage him. If his coalition crumbles among the conservative "Make America Great Again" movement, it would be evident.

On Monday, Trump already indicated that the party usually performs poorly in Midterms regardless of who the president is. It remains unclear if a defeat could result in him turning into a "Lame Duck" - a president with little political influence during the remainder of his term. The 80-year-old may then rely more on signing executive orders to bypass Congress.

As the US president, Trump wields relatively high power. Many Americans focused on the affordability of daily life during the campaign. High prices in supermarkets also contributed to the burden. Trump's Iran war has also driven up gas prices. Democrats criticized Trump for not finding a way out of the Middle East conflict. Republicans, on the other hand, consistently portrayed the Democrats as "radicals" and "communists" that America needed to defend against.

Republican focus was on a Senate seat in the competitive state of Michigan, currently held by the left-leaning Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. As a win would make him the first Muslim senator in US history, El-Sayed called for universal healthcare and higher taxes on the ultra-wealthy. El-Sayed, who Trump criticized as "Jihadists" during the campaign, is one of the most prominent figures in the Midterms.

A win for him would also signal to the Democrats that they can win elections with left-leaning candidates. The election results will set the tone for the upcoming presidential campaign in 2028. Trump's second term will last until early 2029, according to the constitution, a president can only be elected twice. The Democrats hope for a morale boost after their defeat in the 2024 presidential election against Trump.

The party currently lacks a clear unified direction, for which they are currently lacking a clear presidential candidate.