Kremlin doubts Trump can force Ukraine to capitulate — report

The Kremlin is no longer convinced that U.S. President Donald Trump can compel Ukraine to accept a peace deal on Russia's terms, according to a Bloomberg report on November 3. Russian President Vladimir Putin is opting to prolong the conflict, escalate attacks on Ukrainian cities, and pressure Kyiv's European allies. Post-U.S. midterm elections, Moscow aims to secure additional reductions to U.S. sanctions, as evidenced by a diesel deal announced by Trump and Putin in early October.

This strategy seeks to persuade Washington that Russia and the United States can conduct business together without awaiting the war's conclusion. Bloomberg cites a Kremlin source close to the Kremlin, suggesting that a weakened Trump is less likely to bolster Ukraine and Europe. However, Trump's capacity to coerce Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy into agreeing to a deal may wane, potentially prompting Putin to intensify strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure before winter.

The crucial test will occur during talks between Ukraine, the United States, and Russia in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11. Putin has yet to indicate his readiness to abandon territorial claims. Meanwhile, Russia confronts significant challenges of its own, with Bloomberg reporting a record 54,000-plus Russian military casualties and injuries in October, surpassing monthly recruitment levels.

Following the 2025 summit in Alaska, the Kremlin allocated nearly $60 billion to the 2026 military budget, elevating it to nearly $200 billion, with a similar amount earmarked for 2027.