How soon will we know who controls Congress? It could be a while. Here’s why
The stakes in Tuesday’s election — which party will control Congress — are crystal clear. But when that will be known is impossible to say. The Associated Press will be calling races in all 435 House districts and the 35 Senate contests that are up for election this year. Control of the House depends on which party reaches 218 seats. Currently, 219 members caucus with Republicans, just one more…
The stakes for determining which party will control Congress in the upcoming election are evident, but the exact timing of the announcement remains uncertain. The Associated Press (AP) has pledged to report on the results of all 435 House districts and the 35 Senate contests taking place this year. To secure a majority in the House, a party must secure 218 seats.
At present, Republicans hold 219 seats, just one seat more than the required number. There are currently two Senate seats vacant. For the Senate, control is achieved with either 51 seats for Democrats or 50 for Republicans, as Vice President Mike Pence holds the power to cast a tie-breaking vote for his party. Currently, Republicans maintain a 53-47 advantage in the Senate.
Following the midterm elections in 2022, the AP declared control of the Senate approximately four days after Election Day, while the House took eight days to announce a winner. During the 2024 presidential cycle, the gap between the two results was larger, with Senate control being determined the day after the election, compared to the House call coming eight days later.
Some states are notorious for taking longer to count all their ballots. California, the most populous state in the nation, has experienced thousands of mail ballots being dropped off on Election Day. In 2022, half of the state's votes were counted after the election had concluded. Other states, such as Alaska and Maine, are also experiencing delays due to their use of ranked-choice voting.
In this system, a candidate can win with over 50% of votes in the first round, but if no candidate reaches this threshold, the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed to the voter's second choice. This process can significantly prolong the time it takes to determine the final outcome.
The AP does not make projections; it will only declare a winner once it is determined that no scenario would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap.
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