Geldanlage: Bessere Aussichten: Strategen erwarten langfristig höhere Erträge für viele Anlagen

The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, rising oil prices, inflation, and increasing government debt are causing investors to question the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the wisdom of investing heavily in this new technology. George Gatch, the head of JP Morgan Asset Management's U.S. wealth management division, states that the future is as uncertain as it has ever been.

However, over 90 portfolio managers, economists, and strategists from JP Morgan's asset management arm have dared to make a long-term prediction. Their study, named "Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" (LTCMA), estimates how various asset classes will develop in different regions over the next ten to fifteen years.

Remarkably, the long-term forecasts are surprisingly positive. For example, an investor who allocates 60% of their money to global stocks and 40% to global government bonds in September 2022 could expect an average annual return of 6.2% in euros. This is nearly a full percentage point higher than the strategists' projection from a year ago.

Tilmann Galler, a capital market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management in Frankfurt, explains why the market outlook has become more optimistic: "The foundation is a long-term positive outlook for growth and productivity." According to the study, the experts for the major industrial nations expect a nominal economic growth of 4.2% per year on average in the next ten to fifteen years, up from 4.0% previously. Galler says this is the best economic outlook in a generation.

Investments fuel growth, and the experts predict a total investment of 15 trillion dollars in the next ten to fifteen years. This includes both corporate spending on AI and government spending on security, defense, and infrastructure. These investments should benefit companies as they earn more and improve their profit margins, partly due to the adoption of AI.

Therefore, stock market returns are expected to continue growing in the long term. However, the path to these higher returns is not straightforward. The study anticipates setbacks due to disappointment in the expected benefits of AI, rising debt, or increasing public dissatisfaction with the political situation. These risks are expected to cause more market volatility.

Nevertheless, the risks are taken into account in the predictions, and they do not change the projected returns. The experience shows that market setbacks will be recovered from in the short or at least the medium term.