Flanagan vs. Tafoya: Early Voting Surges in GOP-Leaning Minnesota Counties
While Minnesota has long been considered a Democratic stronghold, Tafoya has gained ground during this election cycle.
Minnesota's early voter turnout is surging fastest in rural counties that have historically backed President Donald Trump, potentially offering a boost for Republican Michele Tafoya in the state's tight Senate race against Democrat Peggy Flanagan. However, some analysts caution that early voting data may not accurately predict which party will ultimately prevail once all ballots have been cast.
As several crucial Senate races take place this year that could determine control of Congress, Republicans aim to defend their slim House and Senate majorities while Democrats seek to capitalize on competitive contests that could flip both chambers. With Democratic Senator Tina Smith retiring, Minnesota's open Senate seat provides Tafoya an opportunity.
Corruption has emerged as a key issue in the race, with both candidates using it against each other. Flanagan has emphasized allegations of Trump-linked corruption, while Tafoya has tied Flanagan to controversies from her time as lieutenant governor under Governor Tim Walz. As of Sunday, Minnesota had seen more than 886,000 early votes cast, nearly doubling the 687,062 ballots cast during early voting in 2022.
The seven rural counties showing the fastest growth in early voting since 2022 are Swift, Clearwater, Chisago, Renville, Rice, Wadena, and Winona. Republican optimism is high, with Hamline University professor David Schultz suggesting that Tafoya could secure a win due to issues of corruption and "Democratic Party fatigue." Meanwhile, Flanagan is currently leading Tafoya in most polls, with prediction markets giving her a strong chance of victory at 91.6% and 94%, respectively.
Early voting in Minnesota concluded on Monday, with polls opening on Tuesday morning for Election Day and closing at 8 p.m. local time.
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