The S&P 500's perfect record in midterm elections faces a test in 2026
Wall Street's benchmark index has risen during the six months following all midterm elections since 1950.
US stocks have typically risen in the six months following midterm elections since 1950, but investors warn this streak may end due to concerns around AI and a surge in oil prices. Historically, the S&P 500 index has gained in the six months after midterm elections, with the last decline occurring in 1946. However, with the market already up significantly this year and several concerns on the horizon, some fund managers believe the streak could come to an end.
Laura Cooper of Nuveen and Mohit Kumar of Jefferies cite uncertainty and potential escalation of US military action against Iran as factors that could negatively impact the market.
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