EEUU se juega en las urnas el poder con el que Trump agotará su mandato

The midterm elections in the United States this day will determine the control of the Congress and Senate, the autonomy with which the White House can govern, the battle to lead the Democratic Party, or the fate of international relations in the United States. Nearly 250 million voters are called to the polls in the United States today to participate in the midterm legislative elections.

These elections, designed to partially renew the US Parliament, will also serve as a referendum on the second term of Donald Trump, marked by citizen dissatisfaction over rising fuel prices, opposition to the war against Iran, mass deportations of immigrants, or the deployment of a tariff wall against the rest of the world. The midterm elections will determine the degree of power with which Trump will exhaust the two years remaining of his term; the possibility of facing an impeachment; the reconfiguration of the US political map - from his succession to the leadership of the Republican Party to the battle for Democratic leadership - or, in some way, the course of US international relations.

After the magnate returns to the White House in the 2024 presidential elections, Americans return today to their biannual vote at the ballot boxes to decide the composition of the two chambers of Parliament. On the one hand, they will renew the entire Congress with the election of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives, while only deciding the future of 35 of the 100 Senate seats.

At the same time, they will use the polls to elect 36 state governors and vote on dozens of regional proposals, but it is the control of the two chambers that will decide the power play in Washington and the checks and balances system of their democracy. And the polls point to an overwhelming electoral victory for the Democrats.

"Economic issues, which directly affect citizens' wallets, favor the Democrats; the unpopular war in Iran has exacerbated this situation, and the likelihood of a resounding Democratic victory in the market predictions follows the evolution of oil and gasoline prices," point out Oxford Economics, adding that "it is likely that the discontent with the administration will stimulate Democratic voter participation, while the coalition that backed Trump in 2024 has weakened."

Beyond the particular economic climate, it is worth remembering that historically, the party in power has lost support in midterm congressional elections. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) details that "the party in power has suffered losses in the US House of Representatives in 37 of the last 40 midterm elections." Moreover, at the start of the current 119th Congress, the Republican Party had only a four-seat majority, the narrowest since 1954.

With such a reduced majority, and with 435 seats at stake, MUFG considers it "very likely that the Democrats will regain control of the House in 2026." At the same time, they recall in MUFG that "historically, the party in power loses about four Senate seats during midterm elections," just enough for Democrats to take control. "We consider the Republicans to be in a more vulnerable position in 2026, as they must defend 22 seats, compared to the 13 defended by Democrats," they note, adding that the favorable outcome for the Democrats in several key states is within the margin of error of the polls.

A Democratic victory would severely limit Trump's ability to develop his political agenda during the two years remaining in the White House. But only to a certain extent. "A Democratic-controlled House of Representatives would be enough to limit the approval of important laws, but it would not prevent the administration from resorting to executive measures," warn Julius Bär.

In this regard, it is worth recalling that despite holding both the Congress and the Senate during the first half of his current presidency, Trump preferred to legislate through executive orders, even causing the collapse of his first tariff walls, which required parliamentary support that did not want to seek. He is the president who has used this tool the most.

In less than two years, he has signed 291 executive orders, compared to the 162 signed by his predecessor Joe Biden in four years of the previous legislature. Trump had already set a record with the 220 orders of his first term, surpassing the 200 signed by Bill Clinton in his first four years. At the current pace, however, Trump could triple those figures by the end of his term, reaching around 600 presidential orders in just four years (see chart).

"It is likely that during the 2027-2028 period, the presidency will largely depend on executive action, regardless of the exact composition of Congress," warn Julius Bär, warning that in this way, "trade, immigration, foreign policy, and much of the deregulation agenda would be largely under the president's control." In the case of tariffs, the outcome of the midterm elections could increase pressure to modulate rates that affect imports by up to a third of some states' GDP (see map), knowing that they will be crucial in the 2028 presidential elections.

The composition of Parliament, however, has effects beyond the regulatory margin. "A change in the party controlling either chamber of Congress can transform its activity: from processing laws to opening investigations into public charges," explains Manuel Varela, a lawyer specializing in Civil and Criminal Law in the United States.