ECB rate hike looks nearly certain after inflation rises to three-year high

Eurozone inflation surged to a three-year high of 4.0% in October, driven by rising food and energy prices, according to Eurostat data released on Wednesday. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy costs, remained steady at 2.5%, as expected. Despite these figures, economists believe the evidence now overwhelmingly supports another European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike in December.

The central bank is worried that prolonged energy inflation could embed inflationary pressures further into the economy. Inflation has been climbing rapidly above the ECB's 2% target this year, with rising energy costs from the US-Iran war playing a significant role. While the ECB left interest rates unchanged last week, many policymakers, including heads of the German and Italian central banks, have signaled that another increase in December is likely.

Financial markets currently price in two to three such hikes over the next year, following oil price fluctuations. However, food inflation remains a concern, with non-processed food prices rising 4.6% year-over-year. This could have a disproportionate impact on inflation expectations due to the prominence of certain food items in household spending.