Crisis over top court shapes Poland’s battle lines before 2027 election

A heated conflict is unfolding in Poland over control of the country's top constitutional court, which could shape the political landscape ahead of the 2027 election. The Liberal, pro-EU government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk is seeking to modify the tribunal to align with EU norms and restore rule of law, while President Karol Nawrocki is vehemently opposing these changes, even resorting to physical confrontations to maintain PiS-aligned judges' authority.

The standoff reached a critical point earlier this week when Tusk's coalition planned to convene the court to approve its budget and address disciplinary issues against two judges appointed under the previous PiS government. The clash between Tusk and Nawrocki has united right-wing opposition parties, including Jarosław Kaczyński, Grzegorz Braun, and former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, all of whom converged at a rally supporting Nawrocki's preferred tribunal composition.

This unity could prove decisive for the upcoming parliamentary election, potentially allowing PiS or other right-wing parties to gain power. The crisis has its roots in the Civic Platform-led government's attempt to insert five new judges into the constitutional court in 2015, an action later deemed improper by the tribunal itself.

However, the subsequent PiS government went further by invalidating all five appointments and installing their own. The tribunal's legitimacy has been questioned multiple times, with the EU ruling in 2025 that it failed to meet independent and impartial criteria due to irregular appointments. The current dispute began when Nawrocki selectively welcomed certain newly-appointed judges into the court, disregarding constitutional rules.

Tusk's Civic Coalition remains the leading poll choice, but their smaller partners may not secure seats in the next parliament, creating an opening for right-wing parties if they can cooperate.