Counting down to a Congress verdict

American voters will decide the fate of President Donald Trump's second term in the upcoming midterm elections on Tuesday. Polls and nonpartisan analysts predict that Democrats will gain control of the House of Representatives, while the outcome of Senate control remains uncertain. The battle for the Senate is taking place across nearly 10 tightly contested races, most of which are in Republican strongholds.

History suggests that Trump's Republican party is unlikely to maintain control of Congress, as sitting presidents have lost ground in all but two midterm elections since World War Two. President Trump's approval rating has fallen to its lowest point, exacerbated by voter frustration over the ongoing war with Iran and the resulting increase in fuel prices.

The election is largely centered around President Trump, a dominant political figure for the past decade. He has urged his supporters to "pretend I'm on the ballot," a message that Democratic leaders have embraced. In response to the election, Republicans have portrayed Democratic candidates as radical and un-American, even communist. During a speech in Washington, Trump stated that the Democratic Party has nominated the most extreme and dangerous slate of candidates in American history.

Voters are primarily concerned about affordability, and they disapprove of Trump's handling of the issue. His punitive tariff policies and the decision to attack Iran in February have led to higher domestic costs. Republican candidates have struggled to distance themselves from Trump, who demands unwavering loyalty and rarely admits to mistakes.

To win a majority in both chambers, Democrats must gain at least three House seats and four Senate seats. A Democratic House or Senate could launch investigations into what Democrats view as self-dealing by the Trump administration and demand concessions for approving legislation. A Democratic Senate could also block Trump's appointments, including potential Supreme Court nominees if vacancies arise.

While Democrats have pressured Republicans on much of their home turf, they face a significant challenge. Democratic candidates must defend all of their current seats, including a closely contested race in Michigan. They must also win at least two states that voted for Trump by a wide margin two years ago: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas. In all of these states, opinion polls show Democrats either narrowly leading or within striking distance.

The Michigan Senate contest between progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican former US Representative Mike Rogers has been affected by a surprise endorsement from Democrat Haley Stevens. The race also serves as a test for Republicans' identity-based attacks, as El-Sayed, who would become the first Muslim senator, supports liberal policies such as universal healthcare.

In Alaska, the Democratic candidate Mary Peltola faces allegations of recruiting a third candidate with a similar first and last name to her Republican opponent, Dan Sullivan. In Texas, Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico is benefiting from a substantial investment from billionaire Elon Musk, while his opponent, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, has also received financial support from Musk.

In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton is narrowly leading over Republican US Senator Roger Marshall, both of whom won their states by over 16 percentage points in the 2024 election. Main is another competitive Senate race, with Republican Senator Susan Collins seeking her sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson.