AUD/USD Price Forecast: Holds below 0.7000, near two-week low ahead of RBA decision

The AUD/USD currency pair is currently in a bearish consolidation phase, trading below the 0.7000 mark following a new two-week low during the Asian session on Tuesday. Traders are now focusing on the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision for further guidance. The RBA is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, marking its fifth hike of the year due to a worsening inflation outlook.

Traders will also be closely watching the RBA Governor Michele Bullock's comments during the post-meeting press conference for additional insights into the current tightening cycle. Apart from the RBA decision, the upcoming US midterm elections could introduce volatility and short-term trading opportunities for the AUD/USD pair.

From a technical standpoint, the pair is displaying a near-term bearish tone, with the price failing to break beyond the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7058. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is slightly positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 46, indicating mild improvements in momentum.

However, the pair's proximity to a significant Fibonacci retracement cluster starting at the 38.2% level (0.7027) suggests that rallies may be vulnerable, and the general trend is expected to continue downward. Support can be found at the 23.6% retracement at 0.6977, followed by a crucial structural support level at 0.6896. On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (0.7027), with additional barriers at the 200-day SMA (0.7058), the 50.0% retracement (0.7068), and higher levels (0.7108, 0.7166, and 0.7239).