Asian stocks retreat ahead of US midterms, oil steadies

Asian stocks slightly declined at the onset of trading on Tuesday, November 3, in anticipation of the U.S. midterm elections. The MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index, excluding Japan, dropped by 0.9%, with Korean shares leading the decline by as much as 3.8%. The S&P 500 e-mini futures rose by 0.1%, and Japanese markets were closed for a holiday.

Analysts from ING indicated that Tuesday was merely a day leading up to a more significant event. By the following day, the market would receive insights on the midterm implications and the U.S. Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rose by 2.1 basis points to 4.913%. The previous evening, Wall Street stocks experienced a minor decline, with the S&P 500 slipping by 0.5% due to tech sector earnings and lower than expected services revenue growth.

Apple's shares dropped further by 2.8% in after-hours trading after the company reported lower gross margins for the crucial holiday quarter and projected services revenue growth that fell below Wall Street expectations. Investors are also preparing to vote in the U.S. midterm elections, where President Donald Trump’s Republican Party faces the challenge of maintaining control over Congress.

Opinion polls favor Democrats to win the House, while the Senate remains too close to predict. Prediction market sites Polymarket and Kalshi assign a 75% probability that Democrats will control the Senate. However, polling margins are comparable to the 2018 Trump midterms when Democrats won the House decisively, but Republicans retained the Senate.

The geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, with speculation surrounding the outcome of prediction markets and potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic progress. Oil prices stabilized after a dip, with Brent crude fluctuating and ending at $104.72, while investors assessed the situation in the U.S.-Iran peace talks. The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. military struck Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, while crude prices dropped over 7% following hopes for U.S.-Iran diplomacy.

In Asia-Pacific, Australian shares rose by 0.1%, and the Australian dollar remained stable at $0.70 ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision. Taiwanese shares declined by 1.3%, and the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong increased by 0.3%. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Chinese yuan by 0.3% to 6.6645 yuan, following the People’s Bank of China's announcement to raise the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio for financial institutions to 6% from 4% starting November 15.

The U.S. dollar index rose marginally to 101.81, recovering from its one-month low after slipping by 0.2% on Monday. Cryptocurrencies continued to be volatile following the Binance hack, as customers withdrew a net of $4.72 billion. Bitcoin increased by 0.5% to $77,112.18, while Ether slightly decreased by 0.1% to $2,253.59.