Argentina’s growing youth vote and the changing face of Buenos Aires Province

In 2027, nearly four in every ten eligible voters in Argentina will be aged 35 or younger, according to a report by the Eunomia consultancy firm. This equates to 14.43 million nationwide and 5.25 million in Buenos Aires Province, the region with the largest electorate. The report analyzes the electoral relevance of this age group, their educational and employment profiles, and their information access methods.

By 2027, young people aged under 35 will constitute 37.8 percent of the population in Buenos Aires Province, and 39.1 percent nationwide. This presents a significant challenge for politicians, as this group comprises a diverse range of individuals with varied life experiences. For instance, among 18 to 25-year-olds surveyed by the Catholic University of Argentina (UCA), 39.6 percent had not completed secondary school, while 32.4 percent were either enrolled in or had completed higher education.

Employment conditions further differentiate this demographic. Only 14.2 percent of urban young people aged 18 to 25 had access to formal employment with full labor rights, as reported by the UCA. Meanwhile, those aged 16 to 24 are more likely to be transitioning from education to the labor market, whereas individuals aged 25 to 35 are focused on financial independence, career establishment, and assuming new responsibilities.

This single electoral category encompasses vastly different experiences and demands. Another dimension is how young people obtain information. According to INDEC national statistics bureau data, 97.8 percent of individuals aged 18 to 29 use mobile phones, and 96.5 percent access the internet, with smartphones serving as the primary gateway to information. This shift compels politicians to reconsider their messaging strategies.

While immediate concerns like crime, income, employment, and inflation dominate political discourse in Buenos Aires Province, official projections suggest a quieter transformation is already underway. This transformation is evident in schools, population demographics, and the need to reassess infrastructure and care services. For instance, the number of children under 15 in the province is projected to decline from 3.67 million in 2001 to 2.44 million in 2027.

Conversely, the population of individuals aged 90 and over is expected to increase from 16,000 in 2001 to 165,916 in 2040, nearly nine times higher.

This demographic shift will necessitate a reevaluation of the state's priorities, services, and resource allocation. Policymakers must consider the implications of an ageing population on education, healthcare, social security, and employment, as well as the long-term sustainability of the pension system. In essence, the province's demographic changes do not directly determine how a generation will vote, but they highlight emerging needs that the state must address to effectively serve its citizens.