Why ODM’s ‘TUTAM bila condition’ narrative could be Ruto’s plot to edge out Kindiki

Within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), a heated dispute has emerged over whether to endorse President William Ruto's re-election bid without any stipulations or to seek a formal political pact beforehand. This disagreement has spotlighted two distinct perspectives within the party, with some advocating for unconditional support and others insisting on clear commitments.

However, the issue extends beyond ODM's internal strife, as it may also grant President Ruto the opportunity to modify his choice for the Deputy President without appearing to have altered the arrangement.

The situation becomes particularly crucial with the Deputy President Kithure Kindiki at the heart of the debate. Abdulswamad Nassir, the ODM Deputy Party Leader, has boldly stated that the position should fall to the Orange party, with Hassan Joho being mentioned as a potential candidate. In contrast, Hassan Omar, the Secretary-General of the UDA, asserts that Kindiki remains the preferred choice for the 2027 running-mate role.

This presents a tantalizing political strategy for Ruto. If the unconditional-support faction manages to persuade ODM members that backing Ruto should not be contingent on political concessions, Kindiki might be pushed aside despite his recent service as Ruto's deputy. However, if the conditional-support faction prevails, Ruto may face pressure to address ODM's demands, potentially including reassessing the running-mate position.

Although there is no concrete proof that Ruto is exploiting the internal divisions in ODM to displace Kindiki, the situation remains a subject of political conjecture rather than a confirmed plot. The President is now caught in a debate where both outcomes could significantly impact his re-election strategy. Backing the unconditional position would grant him increased flexibility, while consenting to a negotiated agreement might necessitate concessions to ODM.

This growing discord also raises the question of whether the broad-based government is transitioning into a political entity that could fundamentally alter the distribution of high-ranking positions following the 2027 elections.

For Kindiki, the debate transcends the simple matter of ODM's support for Ruto. It now hinges on whether his role will persist within UDA's political framework or be subject to negotiations with ODM. The most elusive question is whether the TUTAM bila conditions group is merely promoting unconditional political backing or if their stance could inadvertently pave the way for a new power-sharing arrangement.