Trump’s test: A mixed report card before Midterms

In the 2022 elections, Republican Congressman Mike Lawler flipped New York's 17th congressional district red, flipping it for the first time since the mid-1980s. Lawler's moderate policies and reputation for working across the aisle helped him defeat a powerful Democrat and earn support from key labor unions. Even President Joe Biden praised Lawler in 2023 for being "the kind of Republican I was used to dealing with" and not one of the "Maga Republicans."

However, Lawler's ties to President Trump may prove problematic in the upcoming midterms. Lawler voted against a resolution to rein in Trump's military action in Iran and supported the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which would have caused health insurance losses for half a million New Yorkers and cut funding for a hospital in his district.

Lawler also defended ICE officers' actions and highlighted his working relationship with Trump during a town hall. His Democratic opponent, Cait Conley, has pointed to Lawler's proximity to Trump, claiming he has made lives in Hudson Valley families harder under the current administration. Lawler has broken with Trump on some issues, such as raising the cap for state and local tax deductions and extending temporary protected status for Haitian immigrants. However, his reputation as a candidate built on connecting with constituents remains his strength.