Strategy's Michel Saylor Says the Next Bitcoin Bull Market Has Already Started. Here's Why He's Right.
Saylor sees one price dynamic as being particularly important to differentiating between bull and bear regimes.
Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy and formerly known as MicroStrategy, contends that Bitcoin's next bull market has already commenced. This assertion is based on a few key factors. First, Saylor points to Bitcoin's price rebounding off its 200-week moving average after hitting its lowest point during the bear market in late June.
Additionally, he attributes the trend to increased bank lending backed by Bitcoin and the growing tokenization of assets. While I disagree with Saylor's reliance on price action as evidence, I concur with his conclusion that the next bull market has most likely begun. Saylor's metric— the 200-week moving average— represents roughly a four-year average of weekly closing prices.
When Bitcoin's June 30 low of $58,525 was 6.5% below this moving average, the price had nearly reached the point where prior bear markets had bottomed out. However, this approach has its limitations, as Bitcoin dropped 34.2% beneath the 200-week moving average in 2022. To provide a more comprehensive understanding of Bitcoin's market regime, I believe it's essential to consider other factors, such as the behavior of holders—those who are selling at steep losses versus those who are buying.
Upon analyzing the situation, Saylor's evidence suggests that the balance between coins sold at a loss and those sold at a profit has shifted in late August. In every bull market since 2011, profit-taking has surpassed loss-taking, meaning that holders selling at a profit now acquire about four coins for each one sold at a loss.
This shift indicates that Bitcoin has already entered the bull market phase. Furthermore, longtime holders have resumed net buying of Bitcoin since early July, providing further evidence of a new bull run. It's worth noting that the upcoming halving, which will reduce the production of newly minted Bitcoin by half, has not been considered in Saylor's argument.
The subsequent halving is scheduled for early April 2028. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced substantial pre-halving rallies lasting between 400 to 518 days, often resulting in gains of 100% or more. This indicates that the initial stage of the rally is likely to occur between early November 2026 and February 2027. If this pattern persists, it will become increasingly apparent over the coming weeks and months that the bull market has indeed started.
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