Platzt gerade die KI-Blase, oder sind die Investoren bloss nervös wegen der Zwischenwahlen in den USA?

Since three weeks, tech stock prices have been declining, prompting concerns that the KI (artificial intelligence) boom may not be as sustainable as initially hoped. Last Friday, the erosion of Nasdaq-100 index prices accelerated, with the index falling 3.5 percent. Intel's stock saw a particularly dramatic drop of 29 percent, as the company had projected deeper profits for the current quarter than were actually realized.

Google also experienced a significant loss of $500 billion in market value from a single trading day, despite continuing to invest heavily in expanding its AI infrastructure. This infrastructure, however, has become increasingly difficult to fund with cash flows, requiring Google to continuously raise new capital. Moreover, Google's own AI services are cannibalizing its advertising revenues.

This self-cannibalization raises concerns among investors, who are troubled by the apparent lack of quick returns on the massive investments in KI (artificial intelligence) infrastructure. Many believe that the substantial capital deployed in hardware, such as AI chips, which represent about 60 percent of the costs of a modern data center, will quickly lose value and need to be replaced within a few years.

The costs of operation, including massive electricity bills and high interest rates on the invested capital (estimated at about 10 percent per year), further complicate the financial picture. While the author does not believe that the KI (artificial intelligence) bubble has burst, they attribute the current market instability primarily to the upcoming U.S. midterm elections.

Historically, mid-term years have often been periods of market uncertainty. The author expects a rebound, even in tech stocks, which they generally avoid. They also express optimism about the upcoming launch of Anthropic, a major player in the AI industry, as a potential positive factor for the market. The author suggests that it will take a wave of euphoria and significant market hype before the KI (artificial intelligence) bubble can truly burst.

For now, they view the warning signals on financial markets as a healthy sign, potentially exacerbated by the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate hikes. However, this is a gut feeling rather than a data-driven analysis, as there are no immediate market indicators to predict short-term market movements. The main concern for investors currently is the unusual weakness shown by tech giants in their traditional businesses, which may indicate that the expansion of KI (artificial intelligence) infrastructure is not sustainable.