NZ election poll watch: contrasting scenarios play out in different polls
As the final week of campaigning begins, most poll trends show the right leading the left. Only one poll upends that picture.
Two polls released last week provided contrasting views on the upcoming New Zealand election. The Verian poll for 1News indicated a significant advantage for right-wing parties, with National, ACT, and NZ First leading by 9.1 points over Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori. This substantial lead would allow the right to secure a majority of seats, even when adding Opportunity Party's 6.3% support to the left's total.
The right had previously led by 7.3 points in the previous week's Verian poll. However, the Reid Research poll conducted for RNZ showed a much smaller 2.2-point lead for the left, which remained nearly unchanged since late September. This poll gave Labour 30.6% of the party vote (down 0.2) and National 24.6% (down 1.1), with Opportunity leading at 7.2% (up 1.7).
If Opportunity's support holds, it could provide the balance of power and potentially trigger an "overhang" situation where parties win more seats than their party vote would typically allow, expanding the parliament.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation AU's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
