Netanyahu may stay in power but lose control, US midterms could put Trump in same boat - analysis

As the U.S. midterm elections loom, both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and U.S. President Donald Trump may find themselves in a similar predicament: wielding executive power without legislative control. Recent polls indicate that Democrats are likely to gain control of the House and possibly the Senate, which could impact the ability of the opposing party to advance their legislative agenda.

In the U.S., divided government is common, with the presidency held by one party and either or both houses of Congress held by another. However, Israel's political landscape is different due to coalition discipline that generally ensures executive and legislative branches are in sync. The upcoming election could lead to an independent Knesset that exercises greater control, potentially giving Netanyahu's opponents more influence over parliamentary agendas and allowing them to push through significant measures, such as establishing a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 attacks, enacting haredi conscription laws, and rolling back judicial reforms.

This shift could occur even before Netanyahu's government is replaced. The race to form a new government after the election will likely be fraught with challenges, as Netanyahu's opponents must unite to form a government, while Likud seeks to retain some procedural advantages. Ultimately, the success of the opposition bloc will depend on their ability to secure Arab party votes and translate their parliamentary numbers into concrete legislative action.

Should Netanyahu be granted the mandate to form a government, Likud would retain a procedural foothold that could complicate opposition efforts. The central challenge will remain political, as agreeing on reforms and legislation will be no easy task. The outcome of this political standoff will determine whether Netanyahu, like Trump, will maintain executive power but face a legislature that limits his ability to advance his agenda.