Lula's victory alone cannot loosen the US and Israeli grip on Latin America

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has won a fourth term, but his victory alone will not loosen the US and Israeli grip on Latin America. During his birthday celebrations on 27 October 2026, supporters cheered "Lula won!" in cities like Cairo and Sao Paulo. The excitement is real, but hopes of a regional shift to the left and a distancing from the US and Israel are exaggerated.

Argentina, for example, saw its Peronist movement imagine a regional realignment after Alberto Fernandez defeated Mauricio Macri in 2019. However, Fernandez's first foreign trip as president was to Israel, which analysts interpreted as a bid for Washington's goodwill. In Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro took office in 2019, and Jeanine Anez followed in 2022, shaping a conservative "Blue Tide" in the region.

Trump's presidency and Republican majorities in Congress, along with Netanyahu's visits to Latin America, intensified the region's alignment with the US. Lula's re-election is notable, being the first democratically elected Brazilian president to win a third and fourth term. But his victory is hampered by a divided electorate, a deeply polarized country, and a lack of progress in resolving the party's succession issue.

The broader picture shows a reactionary international trend in Latin America, with right-wing leaders winning elections in several countries since Trump's return to the White House in January 2025.