Los expertos de PwC prevén que el crecimiento de la economía española se desacelere al 2,4% este año

Experts at PwC predict that Spain's economic growth will slow down to 2.4% this year, primarily due to lack of demand and shortage of skilled workers. The consensus among 91 surveyed entrepreneurs, professionals, and researchers focused on inflation and monetary policy. A majority of experts (52%) believe the recent sharp rise in inflation is the start of a more permanently higher inflation phase, which the European Central Bank (ECB) will struggle to control.

Experts cited insufficient skilled workers and weak demand as the main reasons for slower growth, with 41% citing each. Concerns about families' financial situation, with 12.6% seeing it as bad in this quarter versus 2.4% in the first, and pessimism about the future, with 28.7% predicting a worsening situation, have dampened consumer and housing demand.

However, business conditions are viewed more positively by 59.8% of experts, though 21.8% believe it will worsen in the next quarter, compared to 1.1% who think it will improve. On prices, 86.2% of experts expect inflation to end the year above 3.5% and remain high in June next year (43.6% predict between 3-3.5%, 35.6% above 3.5%).

This aligns with the view of half (52.3%) of interviewees that the current surge in prices marks the start of a permanently higher inflation phase in Spain, above the European average due to strong internal demand and tourism. Experts are concerned about potential wage hikes (40.9%), yet they think wages will grow slower than prices, leading to a loss of purchasing power that could hurt consumer spending (38.6% believe).

Most experts agree the European Central Bank's decision to raise interest rates to 2.5% is appropriate to anchor inflation expectations, and nearly half (48.3%) see a high probability of further rate hikes this year. Consequently, 75.6% of respondents expect interest rates to end the year between 2.5-3%, with 63.9% predicting they will stay at that level in June next year.