J.P. Morgan Just Made a Bold Prediction About Bitcoin. Should You Buy It?

J.P. Morgan recently forecasted that Bitcoin could deliver an annual return of 10% over the next decade, significantly outpacing the projected 7.5% growth for large U.S. stocks, according to their 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report released in October 2026. While this projection is not as high as Bitcoin's recent compound annual growth rate of 43.9% over the past four years, it suggests that Bitcoin may outperform other major asset classes in the long run.

J.P. Morgan anticipates that Bitcoin will experience annual volatility of 55%, which is considerably higher than the 18% volatility seen in large U.S. stocks, and both figures align with historical data. Despite this higher volatility, J.P. Morgan does not perceive a higher volatility-adjusted return with Bitcoin compared to stocks, as the proportionally greater risk is deemed acceptable.

The bank's projection hinges on Bitcoin's diminishing supply of newly mined coins and the generally expanding global money supply, positioning it as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing. While J.P. Morgan does not recommend a specific allocation, they suggest that a 2% allocation to Bitcoin within a diversified 60/40 stock-and-bond portfolio accounts for 5% of the portfolio's total risk, and a 4% allocation accounts for 14%.

Morgan Stanley, however, recommends that even the most aggressive portfolios should limit their exposure to Bitcoin to no more than 4%. Given the potentially high volatility, it is advised that investors with sensitive risk tolerance should consider a smaller allocation to maintain peace of mind.