India's record crude imports signal strong refinery runs, Russian oil buying to remain flexible
West Asian supplies accounted for about 2.3 million barrels per day, and Russian crude flows remained strong at around 2 million bpd, Kpler lead analyst Nikhil Dubey said in a post
India's crude oil imports reached a record high of approximately 5.6 million barrels per day in October, driven by refiners increasing purchases from West Asia and Russia, according to Kpler's data. West Asian supplies accounted for around 2.3 million barrels per day, while Russian crude flows remained robust at about 2 million barrels per day, according to Kpler's lead analyst Nikhil Dubey.
The recovery in Gulf supplies through September and October, supported by higher ship-to-ship transfers, bolstered Indian refiners' flexibility in sourcing crude. However, Russian shipments may decrease in November and December due to increased freight rates from attacks in the Black Sea, making those barrels less competitive. Meanwhile, Gulf suppliers are offering competitive delivered prices to regain market share in India.
Despite this, Russian crude could still be attractive for Indian refiners if there is renewed disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, as they may return to Russian crude even if transportation costs rise. India imports nearly 90% of its crude oil needs, making the availability and landed cost of alternative supplies crucial for refinery economics.
The choice between Russian and West Asian barrels is therefore mainly driven by commercial factors and supply security, rather than geopolitics alone.
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