Here's Where I Think Meta Stock Will Be in 2030
Meta's sales could grow around 70% by 2030. Why might the shares gain so much less?
Meta Platforms (META) shares are currently trading at approximately $612, having fallen about 22% from their August 2025 record high of $790, despite a 26% year-over-year increase in third-quarter revenue to $64.6 billion. Meta expects capital expenditures of $135 billion to $145 billion in 2026, with plans to sell up to $60 billion more in shares later.
Based on the company's own trends and guidance, I estimate Meta stock could trade near $880 in late 2030, representing a 44% increase from today's price or a 9% annual return. However, Meta's sales growth is slowing, with revenue growth decelerating from 33% year-over-year in Q1 2026 to 26% in Q3 2026. Revenue projections for 2026 and 2030 suggest around $255 billion to $258 billion and $435 billion, respectively, indicating around 27% to 28% growth over 2025.
Meta's operating margin has cooled from 40% a year prior to 35% in Q3 2026, down from 41% in 2025. Despite a projected $15 billion decrease in Reality Labs losses by 2027, aggressive investment plans suggest a 35% operating margin by 2030. With around 2.86 billion shares outstanding by 2030, net income per share is estimated at $44, and a stock dividend of one Class C share per existing Class A or Class B share after Jan.
19, 2027, may lead to a 2-for-1 split. The upside for Meta stock hinges on operating margin improvements, with a 40% margin potentially yielding $1,000 per share. Despite potential legal costs and uncertainties, a 9% annual return appears reasonable for a company expected to maintain double-digit revenue growth through 2030.
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