반도체 초호황의 역설…GDP 대비 ‘노동 몫’ 역대 최저

The semiconductor boom has led to soaring corporate profits, yet labor's share of the pie has not kept pace. With the Korean economy projected to grow over 3.6% year-on-year this year, calls have been made for proactive investment in jobs to mitigate the widening gap. According to the Korean Statistical Information Service, in the second quarter of this year, the labor income portion accounted for 41.1% of the nominal GDP, down from 47.9% a year ago and the lowest since 2010.

In contrast, corporate and self-employed investments in capital have seen total operating surplus as a share of GDP climb from 43.9% to 51.9% since 2010, the highest ever. This disparity, reaching 10.8% points, has far outpaced the 3% point difference seen during the semiconductor boom of 2016-2018. While the labor income share in the domestic production of GDP increased at a steady rate from 43.2% in Q1 2010 to around 48% in 2023, it plummeted to 41.1% in the second quarter of this year.

The semiconductor boom has resulted in a sharp increase in seasonal earnings, but that growth has largely flowed to corporate profits rather than labor. The situation may not improve quickly, as the labor share is unlikely to rebound in the coming quarter, with corporate profits rising due to rising product prices and late salary adjustments.

While labor income could rebound in early 2024 with the return of performance bonuses, the gap could widen further if semiconductor prices continue to rise. The bigger issue is that even if labor's share improves, the benefits will primarily accrue to a limited group of top executives, as performance bonuses and dividends largely benefit high-income earners.

Meanwhile, low- and middle-income earners depend on government redistributive spending and exchange rate depreciation for improved purchasing power. Experts suggest that growth should lead to investments in employment and labor income, particularly in the face of reduced new hires due to AI and unstable employment. They recommend using the government's surplus from the semiconductor boom to fund social welfare programs like unemployment benefits, AI training programs, and direct job creation initiatives.