Exxon Just Raised Its Dividend By 3.9%. Its Free Cash Flow Has Surged 90% This Year. Here’s What That Gap Means

ExxonMobil has increased its quarterly dividend by 3.9%, bringing its growth streak to an industry-leading 44 consecutive years, surpassing 95% of companies in the S&P 500. However, this modest raise stands out against its free cash flow, which has surged by 90% year-over-year to $39 billion over the last nine months. Exxon generated $19.1 billion in free cash flow in the third quarter, nearly equal to its output in the first nine months of last year ($20.6 billion), enough to cover a year's worth of dividends with room to spare.

While Exxon has the capacity for a higher dividend increase, the company's dividend payment is a fixed expense, and its cash flow is highly variable due to higher oil prices and refining margins. As Middle East supply disruptions ease, both pricing and margins will fall, reducing Exxon's free cash flow. Consequently, Exxon is allocating its robust cash flows to repurchase shares and strengthen its balance sheet instead of raising the dividend.

In the quarter, Exxon repurchased $5.1 billion of its shares and reduced its net debt by $11 billion year to date, enhancing its future financial flexibility. This methodical approach, capitalizing on strong markets to build cash while preserving flexibility for future downturns, makes Exxon one of the best oil dividend stocks to buy.