Do the US, Israel agree on targets, challenges, timelines in a potential third Iran war? - analysis

In a potential third Iran war, the United States and Israel have already agreed on the targets, challenges, and timelines for their strategy. Israeli Air Force pilots have flown through Syria and Iraq to rehearse their strikes on Iran's western and Tehran sectors, while American forces focus on the southern sector and some targets in Tehran.

The primary goals are to establish air supremacy and utilize drones, which are vulnerable to fighter jets but advantageous in their ability to remain over a target for extended periods.

The primary target of the war is the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility, which both Israeli and US aircraft struggle to destroy due to its depth underground. The facility's bunker-buster bombs may not suffice in destroying highly enriched uranium and centrifuges, as Iran could potentially hide nuclear assets deep within the mountain.

Beyond the Pickaxe Mountain facility, the new survey by the Institute for Science and International Security highlights two ventilation shafts as potential targets, along with the eastern and western primary tunnel entrances. These locations could be crucial in disrupting Iran's nuclear activities, but the facility is vast and has numerous other assets that would also require targeting.

While Israel and the US have successfully caused cave-ins at these facilities in the past, they quickly reopened due to Iranian bulldozer crews. In early 2026, Iran altered its ballistic missile strategy, spreading its crews across the country and firing smaller barrages to cause continuous disruptions. The regime has also demonstrated the ability to cause damage to American bases in various countries, with significant economic and energy facility attacks on US allies.