China’s powerhouse provinces propel economy towards GDP target

China's top ten provinces by gross domestic product played a critical role in supporting national growth during the first three quarters of 2026, according to analysts. These regions are expected to continue driving the economy throughout the year and into 2027, providing economic confidence to Beijing and helping the country meet its reaffirmed targets at the recent fifth plenum.

Nine out of the ten powerhouse provinces reported growth equal to or higher than the national average of 4.6 percent between January and September, bringing the world's second-largest economy closer to the 4.5 to 5 percent growth benchmark set for 2026.

Tang Dajie, a researcher at the China Enterprise Institute in Beijing, noted that "Big guys are still running fast," emphasizing that these provinces are leading China's economy despite their large GDP sizes. The leaders' confidence was evident in the communique from the fifth plenum, which stated that they would ensure the successful completion of economic development targets for a strong start to the 15th five-year plan.

The top ten provinces contribute close to 70 percent of China's national GDP. Guangdong and Jiangsu lead the list, followed by Shandong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai. Guangdong and Jiangsu's GDPs in 2025 are comparable to those of countries like Canada, Australia, and South Korea, while Shandong and Zhejiang's GDPs are on par with the Netherlands and Saudi Arabia. Shanghai is on track to become China's first 6 trillion yuan (US$901 billion) city this year.

President Xi Jinping first emphasized the importance of these regions in a July 2022 meeting of the party's Politburo, when the economy was recovering from a Covid resurgence and a lengthy lockdown in Shanghai. This requirement has since become part of policymakers' mandate, with officials encouraging high-performing localities to contribute to safeguarding growth, especially during periods of other priorities such as security, diplomacy, and solidifying the party's rule.

While Guangdong, China's top provincial economy for over three decades, reported 4.6 percent growth, which matched the national average, it remains a key contributor to the Chinese economy. However, Guangdong may face challenges from Jiangsu, which is expected to grow faster in 2027. Other regions struggled, with Fujian registering only 3.9 percent growth and seven provinces reporting growth below 3 percent.