Bersatu out to draw Malay votes away from BN-PN, says analyst

Political analyst Azmi Hassan asserts that the Bersatu party aims to draw Malay votes away from the Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional alliance in the upcoming Melaka election. According to Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara, Bersatu is entering the election to demonstrate its potential as a credible ally for the upcoming general election (GE16).

The analyst highlights that the party's strategy of siphoning Malay votes could prove decisive in securing a victory for the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, particularly in the three mixed constituencies of Ayer Keroh, Pengkalan Batu, and Kelebang. PH is fielding candidates in all 28 seats in Melaka, while Bersatu is contesting eight, leading to four direct confrontations between the two parties.

Malay voters constitute a slight majority in Pengkalan Batu and Kelebang, with sizable Chinese and Indian constituencies present in all three seats. Both seats were won by the BN in the 2021 election with narrow margins of 131 and 876 votes, respectively. Ayer Keroh, a DAP stronghold, saw DAP win with a substantial 5,624-vote lead in 2021, when BN and PN were in contention.

PH's Melaka chief, Adly Zahari, welcomed the idea of Bersatu competing alongside PH, arguing that multi-cornered contests could bolster the coalition's chances of victory. However, Syaza Shukri, a political analyst at the International Islamic University Malaysia, doubts Bersatu's ability to divert enough Malay votes from the BN-PN alliance to enable PH to triumph in the four contested seats.

She suggests that even if Bersatu managed to gather a 10% share of the Malay vote in Pengkalan Batu and Kelebang, it would still fall short of the necessary 60% to 70% of the Malay electorate in these areas. Shukri believes that Bersatu's contest with PH is primarily a test to determine which party appeals more to voters, particularly non-Malays, but asserts that this outcome would ultimately benefit the BN-PN alliance.

Shukri notes that Bersatu's fate in the recent state elections in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, where the party performed poorly as a PN candidate, suggests that it may have adopted a spoiler role in the current Melaka polls.