Another 'exploding pager' plot? Israel eyes strike on Tehran’s top military bosses

The latest strategic debate surrounding Israel's future security hinges on the forthcoming US midterm elections and the potential United States-Israeli air campaign against Iran. Washington's proposed short, intense operation aims to cripple Iran's nuclear infrastructure and key industries before retreating, whereas Jerusalem anticipates a far more perilous aftermath.

Analysts agree that a swift American withdrawal would leave Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) undefeated and deeply angered. Iran possesses sophisticated weaponry, including maneuvering warheads, attack drones, cluster munitions, and potentially radiological or chemical payloads, making Israel vulnerable to a protracted conflict if the US departs.

To avert this dire scenario, Israel must acknowledge that targeting Iran alone is insufficient; it must also neutralize its regional proxies. The regime's survival depends on the continued existence of Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the remnants of Hamas on Israel's borders. By dismantling these groups' command structures, missile stockpiles, and political control, Israel can isolate Iran, stripping it of strategic depth.

Israel's post-American withdrawal strategy must focus on destroying Iran's broader war-sustaining infrastructure beyond nuclear sites. This includes crippling its energy grid, hydrocarbon export capacities, and military-industrial complexes. Additionally, Israel must pursue a domestic crash program to achieve military and technological superiority, rapidly developing advanced strike capabilities such as Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBMs), Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs), and hypersonic cruise missiles (HCMs).

These advanced weapons are essential to penetrate evolving air defenses, permanently hold Tehran at risk, and establish a unilateral deterrent that is independent of shifting US policies. Ultimately, if the US executes its plan to strike Iran and withdraw its forces, Israel's operational objective should transition from mere participation to an independent, sustained campaign of containment.

To ensure its survival in the vacuum of an American departure, Israel must commit to a multi-year campaign of proxy elimination, strategic denial, and rapid domestic rearmament. This includes proactively interdicting any attempts by the IRGC to reconstruct military-industrial facilities, import critical components, or restore missile manufacturing capabilities.

By adopting this comprehensive, uncompromising approach, Israel can transform a partial American victory into a definitive solution to the Iranian threat.