Will UAE see heavy rain? NCM explains 96% El Niño forecast for coming months

The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) in the UAE has forecasted a 96 percent probability that the El Niño climate phenomenon will persist from November 2026 to March 2027. El Niño is a natural event, occurring approximately every two to seven years, and not a storm or hurricane. It occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise above their usual levels.

The NCM emphasized that even though the strength of El Niño does not guarantee heavy rainfall, the sea surface temperatures in the region could rise to an exceptional 3.8°C above normal between November 2026 and January 2027. This potential intensification of the phenomenon could influence wind patterns and the movement of low-pressure systems in the Arabian Gulf region, which may indirectly impact rainfall.

The NCM forecasted a 96 percent probability of El Niño continuing from November 2026 through March 2027, with potential effects extending into April.

While seasonal forecasts suggest temperatures and rainfall in the UAE could remain near or above usual averages during this period, the NCM clarified that the intensity of El Niño alone does not directly lead to heavy rainfall in the country. The 96 percent figure refers to the likelihood of the El Niño phenomenon persisting, not the probability of rainfall in the UAE.