Who Will Win the Midterms? What Polls Show 3 Days Out
Democrats lead the race for Congress, but tight Senate contests leave control of the chamber uncertain before Election Day.
As the midterm elections approach, Democrats appear to be strong favorites to win control of the House of Representatives. However, their lead in the Senate is narrower, with several races remaining close enough that a typical polling error could sway the outcome. The results of these elections will determine which party holds the upper hand in shaping congressional agendas, committee leadership, and oversight of President Trump's remaining term.
Historically, midterm elections have been challenging for the president's party, potentially setting the stage for Republicans to lose their 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats need to gain four seats to achieve outright control, as Vice President Dan Sullivan could give Republicans the edge in a 50-50 tie. With multiple races running close simultaneously, even a slight national polling error in either direction could change results across various states.
As of Friday morning, October 30, several key races were within four points of each other, indicating a tight contest. In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola, the first Alaska Native in Congress, is challenging Republican Dan Sullivan. The race employs a ranked-choice system, where lower-placed candidates are eliminated and their votes are transferred until one wins a majority.
Peltola currently holds a 1.2-point lead, according to the RealClearPolling average. In Iowa, Republican Representative Ashley Hinson leads Democrat Josh Turek by just 0.5 points. Decision Desk HQ treats the state as a toss-up, giving Republicans a 53% chance of winning. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton narrowly edges out Republican Senator Roger Marshall by a fraction of a point.
Hamilton holds a 0.2-point advantage according to the RealClearPolling average. In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Senator Jon Husted by 2.6 points. The state is considered one of the closest Senate races in the analysis. Maine is another toss-up, with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers by 3.2 points.
El-Sayed has the strongest Democratic probability among the examined races, at 72%. In South Carolina, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham's brother, Darline Graham Nordone, faces Democrat Annie Andrews. The race has become more competitive than recent voting patterns might suggest, with the Republican holding a 2.7-point lead.
Written by urgent.news from Newsweek's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
