Tungsten’s sixfold surge: Pakistan’s mineral processing opportunity
A sixfold rise in tungsten prices says more about who refines critical minerals than who holds them. Pakistan ships concentrate abroad and buys the finished metal back - a gap that $1.3 billion of US financing does not by itself close. The price of tungsten rose 622% between January 2025 and April 2026, according to the International Energy Agency’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026. Tantalum…
Tungsten prices have surged sixfold in recent years, revealing a critical mineral processing opportunity for Pakistan. The mineral, known for its high melting point and exceptional hardness, strength, and density, is widely used in various industrial applications, including cutting and drilling tools, mining equipment, military ammunition, aerospace components, and high-temperature machinery.
The surge in its price is attributed to Chinese export controls and firm demand for the metal. China controls most of the global tungsten mining and refining, and any tightening of licensing immediately affects world markets.
Pakistan ships concentrates abroad and buys the finished metal back, highlighting the gap in the processing value chain. The International Energy Agency's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 revealed that between January 2025 and April 2026, the price of tungsten rose 622%, tantalum climbed 196%, cobalt increased 134%, neodymium rose 116%, and lithium climbed 108%. Even copper, aluminum, and chromium - the base metals essential for power grids and steelmaking - saw price increases ranging from 39% to 53%.
The surge in tungsten prices is not merely speculative but reflects a structural shift in how the world sources raw materials for technology and defense. The common factor in the price increases is concentration, with China accounting for roughly 70% of refined production across key energy minerals. Pakistan is now exploring ways to tap into this opportunity, with US financing of $1.3 billion through Project Vault, a $10 billion initiative aimed at building strategic mineral reserves and diversifying supply away from China.
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