This top data scientist’s (non-AI) model finds Republicans have just one chance in six of holding Senate
Northwestern University professor Thomas Miller 'Nowcast' incorporates data from betting markets along with economic and financial models to project the odds for candidates in the Senate races.
Prominent data scientist Thomas Miller, a professor at Northwestern University, has forecasted that Republicans have only a 17.1% chance, or one-sixth, of retaining Senate control in the upcoming elections. Miller's model, based on prediction market prices and adjusted for each Senate race by considering current events, predicts a Democratic sweep.
Miller's "NowCast" feature, displayed like a stock ticker tape, continuously updates the probabilities of a Republican or Democratic win. Miller's model has identified key factors driving the betting prices, primarily Donald Trump's words and actions. In the six weeks since the model's September 17 launch, the Republican chances have drastically decreased, falling from 34.8% to 17.1%.
Miller's model identifies 85% to 90% of what's causing the variances on betting sites Kalshi and Polymarket. The GOP's worst predicament is in traditionally strongholds, Iowa and Kansas, where Republican candidates have seen significant drops in their odds. If Democrats win in states Miller's model indicates a 60% or better chance, they would secure a 52-48 majority, nearly reversing Republican dominance.
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