Suited and booted: How Joseph Kabila went from president to rebel leader

Joseph Kabila, once a commander in the rebel alliance that brought his father to power in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in 1997, is now a rebel leader himself at the age of 55. He was the one who handed power to his father after 18 years at the helm and formed a coalition government with him. One of the rebel groups he fought against as president is now part of his new alliance. This situation reflects the ever-changing nature of politics in DRC, where alliances can be fleeting and force is a constant threat.

The confirmation of Kabila's alliance with the M23 rebels, who seized much of eastern DRC, including Goma and Bukavu, sent shockwaves through the country. The M23 rebels, with Kabila's experience and networks, could have a chance to challenge President Félix Tshisekedi, who Kabila is now fighting against. However, it is uncertain whether they can achieve their goal of ousting the president.

Policy analyst Henry-Pacifique Mayala suggested that Kabila might have sought assurances that the partnership could serve his interests, given his death sentence conviction and US sanctions.

Kabila's involvement may also extend the conflict beyond the eastern provinces, as his political networks could give the rebellion a broader reach. However, it is unclear how far Kabila's national reach extends. Although he was once seen as an outsider in Kinshasa, he has networks that could help him regain political influence. Despite this, Tshisekedi, backed by the United States and controlling the political and military systems, maintains substantial advantages.

Tshisekedi accused Kabila of never loving the country and its inhabitants. Nonetheless, Kabila is believed to have played a role in ensuring Tshisekedi's succession, rather than Martin Fayulu, who was the true winner of the 2018 elections.