Shopify Stock Is More Than 10% Below Its Record. Should You Buy Before Its Nov. 3 Report?

Shopify's stock price has dipped 12% from its record $179.22, closing at roughly $157 as of the writing. The decline occurs ahead of Shopify's third-quarter earnings report on Tuesday, November 3. Management had previously shared expectations that revenue growth would reach low-thirties percent, gross profit growth would be in the mid-to-high 20s, and free cash flow margin would sit in the high teens to low 20s.

Despite the stock being cheaper now, management has established clear targets for the quarter. However, the sharp drop might not be as significant as it appears. In the first quarter of 2026, Shopify projected a low-thirties revenue forecast, which it achieved with 34% year-over-year growth. The company also met and exceeded its gross profit and free cash flow growth expectations.

The upcoming quarter presents a more challenging comparison, as Shopify's revenue grew 32% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025, up from 27% in the beginning of that year and 31% in the second quarter. However, gross profit growth is expected to decelerate, falling short of the high twenty percent forecast. Factors like revenue mix from merchant solutions and subscription solutions impact gross profit margins.

Despite this, Shopify's stock has not consistently benefited from beating its guidance. For instance, shares dropped around 16% on May 5, 2026, following a quarterly report meeting the low-thirty percent growth outlook. The stock's market capitalization stands at approximately $200 billion, which is about 86 times its free cash flow as of June 2026.

This valuation suggests that a strong quarterly performance may not substantially alter the price. As such, buying Shopify stock ahead of the November 3 earnings report appears uncertain, and waiting to observe the stock's subsequent movement might be a wiser strategy.