Qatar's economy to jump 15 per cent in 2027 on gas sector recovery, S&P says

Qatar's economy is anticipated to surge by 15 percent in 2027, according to S&P Global Ratings, after the country brings more gas supplies online. This marks a significant turnaround from the 14 percent contraction projected for this year. The strong performance is expected to continue, with an average growth rate of 8 percent over 2028 and 2029.

Approximately 17 percent of Qatar's liquefied natural gas capacity is currently offline due to damage from Iranian strikes, which removed 12.8 million tonnes of annual exports. Although repairs may take three to five years, even a return to normal operations in the Strait of Hormuz would only restore part of Qatar's prewar supply.

Gas prices have soared globally due to production disruptions. Despite ongoing challenges in LNG production, S&P expects the North Field expansion to proceed, albeit with some delays, thereby significantly boosting Qatar's energy sector to serve overseas demand. The expansion is driven by increasing demand from rapidly developing Asian economies and the role of LNG as a transitional fuel in the global energy transition.

However, a prolonged shutdown or disruption to LNG production and exports remains a key downside risk. S&P maintained Qatar's AA sovereign credit rating, citing the country's substantial fiscal and external assets that will enable it to weather periods of security and trade flow disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict.