Otra sacudida tecnológica a las puertas de recibir a Anthropic

This week, the market has issued its verdict on the massive investor bet on AI and demonstrated its mercilessness towards companies unable to generate significant profits and revenues to match the multimillion-dollar spending they are undertaking. The results campaign, often disheartening for the umpteenth technological rebound, has left investors with a cascade of alarming stock market crashes, many unprecedented.

Alphabet, Google's parent company, recorded its largest-ever stock market decline of 12.64% on Thursday, failing to meet its third-quarter predictions and reporting a negative free cash flow due to massive investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure. Intel suffered its historic 29% drop on Friday, attributed to lower sales volume of personal computers, a trend fueled by the AI frenzy.

This downturn is not incidental, as it is also linked to the AI craze driving up demand for chips and their prices, compelling computer manufacturers to raise their prices.

The AI race demands immense investments across the entire technological ecosystem, yet the market will not tolerate any lapses in profit results. The promises of future profits cannot jeopardize current earnings, which are essential and fundamental for financing further investment ventures and securing a share of the AI pie. The Alphabet and Intel stock market crashes demonstrate that the uncertainty regarding the true productivity promised by AI has taken root in investor sentiment and can resurface at any moment in the form of a wave of sales declines.

It is a silent bearish market where many stocks are experiencing declines of over 20% since their highs – a situation affecting over 60% of S&P values – but few dare to talk about a bubble. The initial public offering (OPV) of Anthropic, scheduled for November 16th, will be a crucial test of investors' appetite for the risk associated with AI.

This will be the first OPV of a company dedicated exclusively to developing artificial intelligence models, the final and precious link in a technology that investors and debtors have poured vast resources into. If Anthropic succeeds and the market recognizes its achievement, the bubble risk will have largely been dispelled.