No matter what happens in the midterms, Canada-U.S. tensions are likely to remain

Despite Democrats hoping the midterms will give them the power to rein in President Donald Trump, Canadians can likely expect no major stabilization of the strained bilateral relationship. Once-safe Republican seats are in jeopardy, and control of Congress could shift. Recent polls indicate Democrats are favored to take control of the House, and while the Senate outcome remains uncertain, Democrats might secure a majority with a net gain of four seats.

However, even with control of both chambers, President Trump remains in office, and his desire to use his remaining time in power could make him more erratic and dangerous, according to Matthew Lebo, a political-science professor at Western University in London, Ont.

Lebo warns that it is unclear how much the Democratic Senate will push back against Trump or whether they can effectively limit his actions. With the size of the expected Democrat win playing a crucial role, numerous reports suggest Republicans are concerned about losing seats as contests in U.S. states dominated by Trump, such as Kansas and Ohio, become competitive.

While Republicans may become more inclined to break with Trump if they perceive he has lost the support of loyal voters, it would require a substantial number of them to join Democrats to achieve the supermajority needed to override presidential vetoes and overturn his tariffs.

Canada's vulnerability to American decisions has been evident, particularly with the removal of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and its replacement with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). Former Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris and current Democrat Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer were among the Democrats who voted against the trilateral agreement.

Although President Joe Biden has provided some stability to the Canada-U.S. relationship, there has been little change. Democrats have kept many of Trump's first-term tariffs in place and expanded other protectionist policies.

Canada's trust in American leadership has been shaken over the past few years, with Trump's tariffs and threats of annexation causing significant concern. The trade war has significantly impacted states like Michigan and Maine, where tight Senate races could determine which party gains control of Congress. However, even if Democrats are successful in the midterms or secure the White House in 2028, there is no certainty that Trump's tariff policies will be reversed.

While Democrats may be considering how to address the United States' $40-trillion debt, it remains uncertain how they plan to deal with this issue.