New evidence challenges military’s account of deadly Wainwright fire

A deadly fire at Canada's CFB Wainwright base has sparked controversy over the military's account. The CAF states the fire rapidly spread in "uncommonly strong winds" around 4 p.m. on Oct. 17, killing four soldiers and injuring 39, 19 critically. However, analysis from Global News and seven wildfire experts suggests a different story.

Satellite imagery and weather records reveal the fire already spread before the military's Oct. 17 account. Environment Canada had warned of powerful winds the day before, issuing wind warnings for the area. Wildfire experts say the flames were unlikely to travel as quickly as the military claims, though estimates during a traumatic event might be imprecise.

More importantly, experts say base leadership should have anticipated the dangers posed by the incoming weather, even if they couldn't predict the precise timing or consequences. Jen Beverly, a wildfire expert, notes the situation was not unexpected given the forecast cold front, spreading fire, and wind warnings issued earlier in the day.

The military claims the fire overran soldiers around 4 p.m., but satellite and weather data show a two-kilometre stretch of fire at noon, potentially spreading as winds picked up and a cold front approached. Nearly two weeks after the disaster, questions remain about what commanders knew, what warnings were issued, and why soldiers remained in harm's way.

While the precise combination of weather and fire conditions may have been exceptional, the area has faced destructive winds before. In October 2017, gusts exceeding 100 km/h derailed 13 railway cars nearby. Wainwright, a former Buffalo National Park established in 1909, has seen powerful winds and is prone to wildfires.

On Oct. 17, a grass fire ignited on the automatic grenade launcher range. The Canadian Wildland Fire Information System categorized the wildfire danger as "extreme." The military's account of the blaze's timing has changed, with officials initially stating it started around 4 p.m. later saying it was "contained."