Middle East fertiliser exports decline by 70% as Iran war disrupts supplies

The Middle East conflict has severely disrupted fertiliser supplies to global markets, threatening global food production and crop yields, according to analysts. Shipments have plummeted by an estimated 70-75 percent, with volumes falling to 994,000 tonnes in September, compared to 3.41 million tonnes in September 2022, said Madeleine Overgaard, senior manager of agriculture data at Kpler.

The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial trade route, remains largely closed, with ships facing attacks as they attempt to pass. Saudi Arabia is moving fertilizers overland to its Red Sea ports, but limited volumes have not replaced strait shipments. Export volumes are expected to remain subdued through year-end unless the security situation improves.

The Gulf region, a vital supplier of urea and other fertiliser ingredients, accounts for 25-30 percent of global sulphur production and up to 50 percent of global seaborne trade. Continued attacks on commercial vessels have created hesitation among vessel owners and charterers, further disrupting supplies. The situation poses a significant risk to global food production, with fertiliser deficits likely leading to reduced crop yields and higher food inflation downstream next year.