Michael Burry Is Still Short Palantir. Here's What Its Nov. 2 Report Has to Show.

Michael Burry, the investor known for his role in The Big Short, continues to hold a short position against Palantir Technologies (PLTR). Despite Palantir's stock reaching a record close of $209.05 on Oct. 9, it is currently trading around $195, approximately 7% below its peak. The company is set to release its third-quarter results on Nov. 2, after market hours, with two crucial numbers that could impact Burry's bet against the stock.

One key number to watch is the company's revenue forecast for the third quarter. Palantir is projecting revenue between $2.160 billion and $2.164 billion, which represents a year-over-year growth of around 83%. In comparison, the second quarter saw revenue of $1.18 billion, indicating an 83% growth year-over-year. However, Palantir is known to set its forecasts conservatively, and its revenue in previous quarters has often surpassed these estimates.

If the third-quarter revenue meets or exceeds these projections, it will be in line with Palantir's historical growth pattern, potentially weakening Burry's case for a significant downturn in the company's performance.

The second critical number to observe is Palantir's U.S. commercial revenue, which is growing at a much faster rate than the company's overall revenue. In the second quarter, U.S. commercial revenue increased by 149% year-over-year, reaching $764 million. This represents a strong 28% quarter-over-quarter growth. Management has forecasted U.S. commercial revenue of at least $3.424 billion for 2026, which would require approximately 22% growth in the final two quarters of the year.

A third-quarter U.S. commercial revenue of around $930 million would be consistent with this outlook. If the third-quarter report shows U.S. commercial revenue at this level or higher, it would challenge Burry's view that Palantir's growth is slowing, as the stock would still be trading at a high valuation multiple relative to its earnings.