La OPEP+ evalúa este domingo si modifica su producción petrolera en diciembre

La OPEP+ group, comprising key oil-exporting nations including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, will meet on Sunday to assess whether to adjust their oil production levels in December. The decision will be taken via video conference among the ministers of the group's member countries. This move comes amid renewed tensions in the Middle East and the subsequent rise in crude oil prices.

Seven of the OPEP+ group's members had previously implemented voluntary production cuts totaling 3.85 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2023 to support oil prices. However, these cuts were gradually reversed over time, with the final adjustments completed in September, at least on paper.

Despite official production quotas, there is a significant discrepancy in the actual volumes extracted, primarily due to conflicts in the Middle East that affect the productive and export capacities of several countries in the organization. These conflicts have been exacerbated by ongoing tensions with Iran following US and Israeli airstrikes in February, as well as Houthi rebel attacks on Saudi oil infrastructures.

Additionally, Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil facilities have further disrupted global oil supply routes through key maritime channels such as the Strait of Hormuz (Persian Gulf) and Bab el Mandeb (Red Sea).

The meeting follows a fresh escalation of tensions, with attacks on ships in the Hormuz Strait and Saudi refineries, coupled with fears of potential US retaliation against Iran following midterm elections in the United States next Tuesday. This has led to a fresh increase in the price of black gold, with the Brent crude oil closing at $114.8 on Friday, a 2.48% rise from the previous Thursday.

Brent crude, which serves as the reference price in Europe, ended the session on Thursday at $114.8, reflecting a 2.48% increase from the previous day. This marks Brent's fourth consecutive monthly rise, with a monthly increase nearing 15%, and an accumulation of more than 60% compared to mid-February levels of around $71. Despite the high prices, analysts do not anticipate the group to announce a production increase.

Instead, they agree that the OPEP+ will likely prolong the production freeze for the third consecutive month in December, while preparing internally a new quota distribution for 2027. The group's plenary, founded in 2016 and consisting of 11 OPEC members and ten independent producers, including Russia, Mexico, and Kazakhstan, plans to hold its second ministerial conference of the year on November 29.