Hezbollah unlikely to join renewed war unless Iran faces existential threat, Lebanese official says

A senior Lebanese official has stated that Hezbollah is unlikely to join a renewed conflict between the US and Iran unless Tehran faces an existential threat. The official, who wished to remain anonymous, explained that Hezbollah's involvement would depend on whether Iran and its ruling system faced survival rather than merely being under renewed American attack.

The Lebanese official recalled that during the initial outbreak of the region's conflict this year, Hezbollah would have joined the fighting if Ayatollah Khamenei had been killed. The official previously informed the Americans about this possibility. The ongoing Middle East conflict, now in its eighth month, began in February when Israel and the US launched airstrikes against Iran.

In response to the assassination of Khamenei on March 2, Hezbollah fired rockets at northern Israel, leading to an Israeli bombing campaign and the occupation of southern Lebanon. Despite a US-brokered framework agreement with Lebanon, Hezbollah has rejected the deal but refrained from fighting Israeli troops. While previous attempts to ease hostilities have seen some progress, there are growing concerns that tensions could escalate again, potentially following the US midterm elections on November 3.

Recent diplomatic efforts, including proposals from Qatar to Iran, have yet to produce a breakthrough. The Lebanese official praised the recent security and military discussions between Israeli and Lebanese delegations in Tampa, Florida, as "very good" and dismissed reports of their failure. The talks aimed to address issues such as an end to Israeli attacks, Israeli forces' withdrawal, and Hezbollah's disarmament.

However, the issue of Hezbollah's weapons and the Lebanese army's limited capabilities continue to pose significant challenges in negotiations with Israel and international partners. Despite calls for disarming Hezbollah, the militant group remains steadfast, backed by Iran and the Lebanese army's weaknesses. Lebanon remains committed to establishing its sovereignty, but the process will prioritize the nation's interests over others.

Concerns persist that a direct confrontation between the Lebanese army and Hezbollah could ignite internal conflict, with some advocating for a more forceful approach, even if it entails costs.