Vietnam set to overtake Southeast Asia's largest economy in GDP per capita this year

The International Monetary Fund's October World Economic Outlook predicts that Vietnam will surpass Indonesia as Southeast Asia's largest economy in terms of GDP per capita this year. Vietnam's nominal output per person stands 8.9% higher than last year and nearly double its level a decade ago. Indonesia was projected to remain ahead in 2026 based on the IMF's April outlook.

However, the new projections would put Vietnam fifth among ASEAN members, trailing behind Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, and Thailand. The IMF expects Vietnam to maintain its lead over Indonesia in 2027, with per capita GDPs of $5,659 and $5,550 respectively. Indonesia remains the region's largest economy, with a projected GDP of $1.48 trillion, more than three times Vietnam's $542 billion.

The shift is attributed to Vietnam's growing role in high-tech manufacturing, particularly in semiconductors and electronics, due to investments from companies like Taiwan's Foxconn and South Korea's Samsung Electronics. Vietnam's economy expanded by 9.95% in the third quarter, the fastest pace in four years. The government's public investment push, amounting to VND1.014 quadrillion ($39.3 billion) for the year, is also contributing to growth, with infrastructure projects underway nationwide.

Meanwhile, Indonesia's growth has remained around 5%, with an IMF forecast of 5.1% for the year, compared to Vietnam's 8.4%. Vietnam aims to achieve at least 10% growth this year and raise GDP per capita to about $8,500 by 2030, approaching Thailand's current level. Experts note that Vietnam needs to focus on long-term growth by developing human resources and technology alongside infrastructure spending to sustain growth in the long run.